Foreign economic cooperation between Ukraine and EU countries: current trends and future forecasts
Article Sidebar
Main Article Content
Abstract
The purpose of the article is a comprehensive analysis of the indicators of trade in goods between Ukraine and the EU, starting from 2004, identifying trends and forecasting prospects. The originality of the article lies in the combination of three research methods: extrapolation of trends – to determine the trends of export-import operations between Ukraine and the EU in 2004-2024 and obtaining point forecast values for 2025-2027; fuzzy set theory – to obtain interval forecast values of foreign economic cooperation between Ukraine and the EU for 2025 and improving the quality of forecasting; ABC analysis – to group EU countries by indicators of trade in goods with Ukraine under martial law. As a result, a polynomial trend model was built for forecasting exports of Ukrainian goods to the EU, and a power trend model for forecasting imports of European goods to Ukraine. Trapezoidal fuzzy intervals of exports of goods from Ukraine to the EU in 2025 and imports of goods from the EU to Ukraine in 2025 were obtained. When constructing trapezoidal fuzzy intervals to determine pessimistic and optimistic estimates (extreme points of the lower base and extreme points of the upper base, respectively), the author's methodology was used, according to which the optimistic interval includes approximately half of the central elements of the observed dynamic series, ordered in ascending order; they have the highest probability of verification. It was determined that under martial law, Ukraine most effectively cooperated in the field of trade in goods with seven EU countries: geographical neighbors Poland, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia (land borders), Bulgaria (sea borders), as well as the countries of the "Big Seven" – Germany, Italy. The practical significance of the study lies in the possibility of using the results of the study for planning Ukraine's foreign trade operations and choosing partner countries.
Article Details
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
National Interest Academic Journal under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License The journal allows access or distribution of academic work without charge or registration. To support the exchange of knowledge Scope covers academic work in geopolitics. Geoeconomics and Innovation
Users can share, copy and distribute all information published in National Interest Academic Journal in any form or medium subject to the following conditions:
Citation — Permission to use, reproduce, distribute, or modify the work. But credit must be given to the owner of the work. If the work is used without credit, the name of the owner of the work will be Must obtain permission from the owner of the work first.
Noncommercial — The work may be used, reproduced, distributed, or modified. However, the work or article may not be used for commercial purposes.
Cannot be modified — The work may be used, reproduced, and distributed. But do not modify the work. unless permission is received from the owner of the work first
References
Ambroziak, Ł., Szczepaniak, I., & Bułkowska, M. (2024). Competitive position of Polish and Ukrainian food producers in the EU market. Agriculture, 14(12), 2104. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture14122104
Bulkowska, M., & Bazhenova, H. (2023). Direct and indirect consequences of the war in Ukraine for Polish trade in agri-food products. Zagadnienia Ekonomiki Rolnej, 376(3), 66–90. https://doi.org/10.30858/zer/170892
Horská, E., Moroz, S., & Palkovič, J. (2023). Determinants of export activities in Ukrainian regions in the pre-conflict and the first-stage conflict periods. Entrepreneurial Business and Economics Review, 11(1), 181–198. https://doi.org/10.15678/EBER.2023.110110
Jacyna-Golda, I., Shmygol, N., Gavkalova, N., & Salwin, M. (2024). Sustainable development of intermodal freight transportation-through the integration of logistics flows in Ukraine and Poland. Sustainability, 16(1). https://doi.org/10.3390/su16010267
Kovbatiuk, M., Kovbatiuk, G., & Shkliar, V. (2023). The model of assessment of goods exports of Ukraine to the world integration associations. Baltic Journal of Economic Studies, 9(1), 71–81. https://doi.org/10.30525/2256-0742/2023-9-1-71-81
Kudyrko, L., Stetsko, M., Lezhepokova, V., Petrochenko, O., Makatora, D., & Yashchenko, O. (2024). Environmental aspects of geospatial diversification of foreign trade: The case of Ukraine-EU. Studies in Systems, Decision and Control, 489, 167–179. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-36895-0_15
Legislation of Ukraine. (2014). Uhoda pro asotsiatsiiu mizh Ukrainoiu, z odniiei storony, ta Yevropeiskym Soiuzom, Yevropeiskym spivtovarystvom z atomnoi enerhii i yikhnimy derzhavamy-chlenamy, z inshoi storony [Association Agreement between Ukraine, of the one part, and the
European Union, the European Atomic Energy Community and their Member States, of the other part]. https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/984_011?lang=en#Text (In Ukrainian).
Levytska, I., Klymchuk, A., Biletska, N., & Prokhorchuk, S. (2024). Economic partnership Ukraine–EU: Retrospect and challenges of further enhanced cooperation. Financial and Credit Activity: Problems of Theory and Practice, 4(57), 290–300. https://doi.org/10.55643/fcaptp.4.57.2024.4437
Maly, M., Cvik, E. D., & MacGregor Pelikanova, R. (2023). EU sanctions against the Russian Federation and their implications for the foreign trade of the Czech Republic. AGRIS On-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, 15(3), 119–130. https://doi.org/10.7160/aol.2023.150310
Maruniak, E., Lazhnik, V. & Puhach, S. (2023). Spatial differentiation of commodity trade between Ukraine and the EU. Ukrainian Geographical Journal, 2, 13–24. https://doi.org/10.15407/ugz2023.02.013
Ministry of Economy, Environment and Agriculture of Ukraine. (2025). Monitorynh osnovnykh podii v ekonomitsi Ukrainy (serpen 2025) [Monitoring of major events in the economy of Ukraine (August 2025)]. https://me.gov.ua/view/a3bcf619-5551-4f23-bc04-19f861cc8b92
Nielsen, K. L. & Siljak, D. (2025). Integration maturity of Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine: Has DCFTA helped prepare them for the EU accession process? East European Politics and Societies, 39(1), 208–234. https://doi.org/10.1177/08883254231215497
Nifatova, O., Danko, Y., Petrychuk, S., Balezentis, T. & Streimikiene, D. (2024). Import dependence of the European organic market and the role of Ukrainian exports. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 30(6), 1950–1971. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2024.22840
Radziyevska, S. (2023). State governance for Ukraine’s growth and development: Trade aspect. Baltic Journal of Economic Studies, 9(1), 135–145. https://doi.org/10.30525/2256-0742/2023-9-1-135-145
Schmidt, C. (2024). Aid in conflict: Determinants of international aid allocation to Ukraine during the 2022 Russian invasion. The Economists’ Voice, 21(1), 133–158. https://doi.org/10.1515/ev-2023-0049
Shnyrkov, O. I., Zablotska, R. O., & Chugaiev, O. A. (2023). Determinants of economic aid of EU member countries to Ukraine in the conditions of the Russian-Ukrainian war. Academic Review, 1, 231–241. https://doi.org/10.32342/2074-5354-2023-1-58-17
State Statistics Service of Ukraine. (2025). Heohrafichna struktura zovnishnoi torhivli tovaramy z krainamy YeS [Geographical structure of foreign trade in goods with EU countries]. https://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/
Tokar, V. (2024). Ensuring economic security: Comparison of EU member states and Ukraine. Baltic Journal of Economic Studies, 10(3), 332–339. https://doi.org/10.30525/2256-0742/2024-10-3-332-339
Totska, O. (2022a). Forecast modeling of foreign trade in agricultural complex products between Ukraine and Romania. Scientific Papers. Series «Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development», 22(3), 777–782. https://managementjournal.usamv.ro/pdf/vol.22_3/Art86.pdf
Totska, O. (2022b). Forecasting the value of the export of Ukrainian agricultural products based on fuzzy sets. Scientific Papers. Series «Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development», 22(4), 751–760. https://managementjournal.usamv.ro/pdf/vol.22_4/Art80.pdf
Totska, O. (2022c). The value dimension of Ukrainian Exports of grain crops, fats and oils to European Union countries. Scientific Papers. Series «Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development», 22(3), 767–770. https://managementjournal.usamv.ro/pdf/vol.22_3/Art84.pdf
Totska, O. (2022d). Ukraine and Romania: Financial aspects of trade in agricultural products. Scientific Papers. Series «Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development», 22(3), 771–776. https://managementjournal.usamv.ro/pdf/vol.22_3/Art85.pdf
Totska, O. (2023a). Determination of the probability of favorable trends in the export-import of tourist services of Ukraine with EU countries: Financial background. Scientific Papers. Series «Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development», 23(1), 837–844. https://managementjournal.usamv.ro/pdf/vol.23_1/Art88.pdf
Totska, O. (2023b). Foreign trade in goods of Ukraine with EU countries: Value dimension. Thai Journal of National Interest, 3(11), 1–15. https://sc01.tci-thaijo.org/index.php/NIT/article/view/240431/163883
Totska, O. (2023c). Ukraine-EU: Analytical assessment of international trade in services. Economics and region, 4(91), 108–117. https://doi.org/10.26906/EiR.2023.4(91).3200
Totska, O. (2024a). Analysis of the dynamics and identification of seasonal fluctuations in Ukrainian agricultural exports by type of transport. Scientific Papers. Series «Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development», 24(3), 929–934. https://managementjournal.usamv.ro/pdf/vol.24_3/Art98.pdf
Totska, O. (2024b). Export of products of the agricultural industrial complex of Ukraine in the period March 2022–January 2024: Analysis of seasonal fluctuations. Scientific Papers. Series «Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development», 24(3), 923–928. https://managementjournal.usamv.ro/pdf/vol.24_3/Art97.pdf
Tuliakov, V., Alekseievska H., & Yakubovskiy, S. (2023). The impact of the Association Agreement between the European Union and Ukraine on mutual trade and Ukrainian ports cargo. InterEULawEast, 10(1), 1–19. https://doi.org/10.22598/iele.2023.10.1.1
Tuliakov, V., Yakubovskiy, S., & Truba, A. (2024). The economic impact of Ukraine’s trade relations with the EU amid geopolitical challenges: An analysis of trade dynamics, restrictions and integration. InterEULawEast, 11(2), 149–163. https://doi.org/10.22598/iele.2024.11.2.7
Versal, N., Krasota, O., Lialkin, O., Khytryi, O., Rybak, I. & Sydorenko, D. (2023). Balancing monetary policy in defence economics in Ukraine. Financial and Credit Activity: Problems of Theory and Practice, 2(49), 24–42. https://doi.org/10.55643/fcaptp.2.49.2023.3991
Zalizniuk, V. & Artamonova, G. (2025). European perspectives of international economic integration of Ukraine. Baltic Journal of Economic Studies, 11(2), 80–94. https://doi.org/10.30525/2256-0742/2025-11-2-80-94
Zawojska, A., & Siudek, T. (2024). European Union-Ukraine agricultural trade during the Russo-Ukrainian war: A political economy perspective. Annals of the Polish Association of Agricultural and Agribusiness Economists, 26(1), 338–361. https://doi.org/10.5604/01.3001.0054.4324
