From Drones to Doctrine: Why Russia’s Air War in Ukraine Is a Warning for Europe

บทคัดย่อ

        This article examines the transformation of Russia’s use of drones in the war against Ukraine from improvised tactical employment into a formalised military doctrine. Drawing on primary and secondary open sources, including defense and think tank reports, and media investigations, the study analyzes the growth of Russia’s industrial production capacity, tactical innovations, and integration of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) into hybrid warfare doctrine.
        This article identifies five key features of Russia’s drone doctrine. First, industrial-scale production and distributed supply chains. Second, layered saturation tactics that combine decoys, kamikaze drones, and AI-enabled swarms. Third, tactical adaptations such as jet-powered UAVs and fiber-optic control systems. Fourth, integration of drone operations into hybrid campaigns targeting civilian resilience. Fifth, the Russian systematic use of Ukraine as a testing ground for concepts that could later be used in NATO’s eastern flank.
        The conclusions indicate that Russia’s approach creates substantial vulnerabilities for NATO and EU member states. First, it is the cost asymmetries between inexpensive drones and expensive interceptors that risk eroding Western deterrence. Second, fragmented procurement patterns hinder the development of a unified counter-UAV doctrine. And finally, civil infrastructure remains vulnerable to hybrid pressure.
        NATO and EU countries should urgently adopt counter-drone doctrines, stockpile affordable interceptors, expand their electronic warfare capacity, and strengthen civil defense systems. Ukraine’s experience offers a unique opportunity for joint learning, but Europe’s window to prepare is narrowing.