The Study of the Lanchester model of air combat with the effect of range-dependent weapons’ kill probability

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Thiansiri Luangwilai
Somboon Prakorn
Prakorn Pratoomma


In modern warfare, it becomes more sophisticated for a commander to predict their battles and mission solely by their own knowledge and experience. Therefore, a tool or prediction model becomes inevitable for every force. This investigation aims to study and develop a mathematical model of aerial warfare behaviour. The study begins with the Lanchester model, and then the model is modified and extended to capture the generic behaviour of modern aerial warfare. The governing equations are the changes in the relative strengths of two forces. An air-to-air attack, sensor and situation awareness system, aircraft defence system, aircraft survivability, and aircraft deterioration are all included in the model. The effects of range-dependent weapons and their kill probabilities are also being investigated and studied. Then the case study is analysed and discussed. As a result, this study will provide an insightful understanding of modern aerial warfare, which will benefit the Royal Thai Air Force. Consequently, the model can be used for future air warfare studies and air mission planning.


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T. Luangwilai, S. . Prakorn, and P. Pratoomma, “The Study of the Lanchester model of air combat with the effect of range-dependent weapons’ kill probability”, Def. Technol. Acad. J., vol. 4, no. 10, pp. 70–79, Oct. 2022.
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