Crime Predictive Model in Chang Phueak Police Station Neighborhood, Chiang Mai Province

Abstract

This Study has objectives to study influential factors for crime and to predict crime occurrence in the study area. It was collected data with crime occurrences from Chang Phueak Police Station, Chiang Mai Province in 2015-2017 in order to analyze spatial pattern of crime with hotspot analysis method. The results of this study found that the spatial pattern of crime occurrence has appeared mostly in economic, business and residential districts and have appeared at 10.00 pm to 02.00 am. Form such pattern and relationship have led to analyze prediction of crime area with grid model technique analysis in Geographic information system (GIS). For predictive modelling development, it was created by multiple linear regression equation. The results of a predictive model of crime occurrence in 2015 have had Coefficient of Determination (R²) in 0.683. This study has evaluated the spatial error of the results from the model with RMSE method. There were low error areas with 86.92 % of all predictive area which has mean that can be accepted to this prediction.