Benchmarking the Combat and Industrial Capabilities: A Case Study of Indigenous Rocket Development Projects in the Southeast Asian Region

Abstract

The objective of this research is to examine the combat capabilities and industrial potentials of rocket development projects in Southeast Asian countries, to assess their strategic impacts on regional security and to provide recommendations for coping with the situation and developing our capability. Using the "X and Y Axes" analytical framework, the study evaluates combat
capabilities across five factors: range, warhead, accuracy, mobility, and salvo capability, alongside
industrial capabilities through the "Ladder of Production" concept, which reflects the progression of defense industries. The analysis categorizes rocket development projects into four scenarios: projects with the highest strategic threats, underdeveloped projects, projects dependent on foreign technology, and low-risk projects, while proposing appropriate response strategies for each case. The findings indicate that
some rocket development projects, such as the Indonesia’s missile project called R-HAN 122 and the Singapore’s missile project called Blue Spear, significantly impact regional security and industrial
development. These projects demonstrate advanced domestic development capabilities that could pose threats if international relations deteriorate. Meanwhile, projects reliant on foreign technology or those that remain underdeveloped still exhibit strategic impacts, albeit with limited self-reliance. The study highlights that Thailand should assess these projects beyond mere military threat responses, emphasizing broader dimensions such as strategic alliances, joint development with Indonesia, and technology transfers from Singapore and Israel to enhance economic and industrial capacities. Advanced air defense systems and proactive measures, including cyber operations, may also serve
to balance regional power effectively. Thus, this research reframes rocket development projects
not only as military threats but also as opportunities to enhance Thailand’s economy, industry, and regional influence. It underscores the importance of building alliances, reducing international tensions, and implementing policies that address challenges comprehensively and sustainably.