Drug Trafficking Estimation based on Geo-statistics

Abstract

The situation of Drug trafficking in Thailand mostly occurs along the border with its 80% landscape of the smuggling area in the northern border, particularly in Chiang Rai, Chiang Mai and Mae Hong Son. Due to the fact that these areas are nearby narcotic storages of producers and also the powerful minorities mafia’s area in neighbor country, it was kept scrutinizing because of high volume of drug import. Current situation and related violence attribute this study to predict the trafficking using geography statistics. A geographic information database is collected from open-source data. The study on arrest patterns with global statistics from 2011 to 2016 was in two forms, random and clustered. Local statistics were used to investigate areas of high and low trafficking. It was often found in Chiang Mai and Chiang Rai in 2013. The forecasts of smuggling using analysis of directional distribution were found in the north east from Mae Na sub-district, Chiang Dao district, Chiang mai to Koh Chang sub-district, Mae Sai district, Chiang Rai. When considered with the value of exhibits, it was found that most high trafficking was at Chiang Mai area. The validation of the forecast was found more than 35-80 percent every year. The results of joint analysis with the physical data showed land use where offenders were seized mostly in the urban, agricultural and forestry areas. Main roads and urban roads were used for smuggling in plain area.