An Analysis of the Environment and Uncertainties Affecting Thailand's Defence Industry over a 15 - Year Period (2025 - 2040)
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Abstract
This article aims to 1) study and analyze the driving forces and trends impacting Thailand’s defence industry over a 15-year period (2025 - 2040), 2) to evaluate critical uncertainties that may influence the future direction of Thailand’s defence industry, and 3) to synthesize recommendations for formulating strategic guidelines for the development of Thailand’s defence industry. In the study, we gathered data from open sources, including academic documents, defence industry policy papers, and reliable news outlets, along with interviews with experts in the defence industry and national security strategy. The PMESII Framework (Political, Military, Economic, Social, Information, and Infrastructure) was utilized to identify key driving forces and trends complemented by the Impact/Uncertainty Grid to evaluate uncertainties. In the analysis, we identified two critical uncertainties due to US Policies under Trump’s administration, and economic nationalism and protectionism that impact global supply chains and international trade. The article also proposes six strategic recommendations for the development of Thailand’s defence industry: 1) developing infrastructure and ecosystems for the defence industry, such as establishing dedicated defence industrial zones; 2) enhancing international collaboration and attracting foreign direct investment; 3) strengthening human resource development and fostering technological innovation; 4) supporting domestic research and development; 5) improving cybersecurity management; and 6) implementing long - term strategic planning using tools such as Scenario Planning to prepare for future uncertainties.
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